Daily Weather Summary 08/05/02

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Daily Weather Summary Output

Author: Richard Wohlman

Date: 08/05/02


Weather Summary:

TS Bertha is moving ashore in srn MS/LA. Cyclone SE of SC/GA to move SE and intensify. This motion, in conjunction with extremely deep HI over central US will push the trof which has been lying E to W over nrn FL to the south. As a result, winds will remain ESErly over srn FL and SErly over Keys. HI to the east will be pushed SE as trof approaches. Expt trof to move over area by late Wed or Thu. Til then, we'll remain in weak SEly flow thru much of
the atmosphere.

Will need to watch the wrn end of the trof line as it moves southward. If trof 'lengthens', i.e. stretches to another lo in the srn Gulf as it passes southward, our wind regime will make a radical shift from ESE to more Westerly. Bad news for Tstms over our area of interest (AOI). If however the trof weakens as it moves south, winds may remain light from SE and favorable for tstms in AOI, thus will bear watching. Sounding for mia and eyw not in at this time.

Fcst for today- Favorable for convection from the keys to FL this morning, xpct a repeat of yesterday in the Everglades with afternoon thunderstorms. Unfortunately this is a maint. down day, and tomorrow looks less favorable. Will update after the 1700 meeting.

1037EDT rw

This would have been a great day to fly. Lots of tstm activity in the NW part of our everglades flying area, and as it died off, storms moved into the Florida Bay from the ENE and built along the keys chain. Had a very nice storm over the airfield about 1700L and heard 3 or 4 close claps of thunder.

It now appears that the trof is moving southward slowly, and has detached itself from what was Bertha. High pressure in the western gulf should help push the trof southward, so we should see N-NWly winds over much of the penninsula. Turns out from talking with the NWS folks that this wind regime is favorable for convective development in the southernmost part of the Everglades. Again, outflow boundaries are the key, and if we can catch two merging, we might be able to watch the entire lifecycle of a storm. One can hope.

rw 1700L

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