Daily Weather Summary Output 08/29/02

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Daily Weather Summary Output

Author: Richard Wohlman

Date: 08/29/02

Weather Summary:

Quite a change in the overall situation in the last 48 hours. Synoptically, a cold front has pushed thru the southern states and has stalled off of the gulf coast. A large region of dry air lies behind the front, but will not move into our area as the Atlantic Hi regains strength to the west and re-establishes itself in the central and western gulf. The ridge axis running east west thru FL has shifted back north of us returning us to the predominantly SE flow from the surface to the Trop.

Between the atlantic hi and the lobe in the gulf is an induced trof which lies to the east side of FL. Here will be lots of instability and moisture for numerous rw/trw. Expect heating to kick off over the southern part of the state around 1300L today. While CAPE for MIA and EBW are near 1000, I think that the moisture available (~50mm for each) is more than enough for some nice downpours. Due to the relatively benign wind field with little shear to the trop, we have seen some waterspouts this morning. Not big ones, but there none the less.

Outlook for the next couple of days looks favorable, as the trof to the east of FL remains fairly well stationary, but will be enhanced by the passage of an easterly wave sometime tomorrow. Models show lots of rainfall both days, with most intense tomorrow on the east coast of FL and over the Gulfstream by mid afternoon. Saturday similar, altho with the easterly wave moving off, there will be a slight deminishment in the tstms. Recommend we try to go both days.

1135 rw

Afternoon update- no sig changes. Front has stalled off of gulf coast, lots of moisture remains, models continue to indicate good precip tomorrow and Saturday.

1639 rw


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