Daily Weather Summary Output 08/23/02

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Daily Weather Summary Output

Author: Richard Wohlman

Date: 08/23/02

Weather Summary:

Boy, this is a tough call today. The dry mid-upper level air has moved into the area and really taken hold of the entire FL/Keys forecast region. 500 and 300 mb charts both show clearly defined anticyclones locked over the GA/SC area pumping in the dry air from the NE over us. However, there is a region of moist air that should be over us by mid afternoon, and that will change everything. With the dry air in place, PW stands at 1.5-1.75inches over all of FL. Capes are either 0 (JAX) to barely positive (MIA and TBW). EYW, however is still in the moist air from yesterday, and shows a doubling from last night to 1800. Still low, but it will decrease thru much of the morning.

I'm betting on a couple of things to happen. Because of the clear skies and fairly light SEly winds over Srn FL, we'll see a late start to seabreeze and inland fair wx cu. Then, as the moisture at 500mb+ overruns the region, I expect to see rw/trw pop up in the southern half of the state. Dont see the moisture much north of Cape Canaveral, so look for showers south of there. Finally, as the day progresses, watch for tstms to pop over the Glades in our area of interest.

I fully expect that the coverage of the storms will be slight, but I think that if things come together properly (and IF I've read them properly-- big if!) we'll see Isold tstms in the Glades, and perhaps some isold rw/trw over the ocean, although without a decent trigger these oceanic storms will be few and far between.

Forecast a start of isolated thunderstorms in the Glades ~1500L, isold rw/trw near us after 1600L.

1135L rw


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