Afternoon Update, Sunday 24, 2011
The forecast update re-emphasizes the potential convective precipitation and associated anvil development over campaign facilities during the overnight hours (Sunday late into Monday morning). A healthy convective line - trailing stratiform region that has developed to the east of campaign facilities along the surface boundary draped over south east Oklahoma was reasonably well predicted (and subsequently better predicted throughout the day today), but the stronger maturity of this system has trended to favor previous model and human forecast solutions that put more emphasis on low to mid level moisture return associated with the low level jet development a bit later into early Monday. Still maintaining previous expectations for best precipitation development after 6-7 UTC, which should also be aided by the passage of the upper level trough; The upper level support already (as of 00 UTC) appears to be kicking off a healthy convective cell / reasonably separated anvil in west Texas/Oklahoma panhandle in what otherwise might be considered less favorable environmental conditions well away from the desirable initiation zone.
