May 22 Forecast

Fog and low level clouds are present in the early morning, and will likely burn off by midday as the dry line pushes eastward and forms from southeast Kansas to northern Texas. This afternoon and evening severe convection may fire along the dry line as there is plenty of available moisture being brought in by strong southerly surface winds.

The models show some precipitation may be possible in the early-mid afternoon over our region, also some spotty showers in the Colorado region of interest may occur, but not a widespread precipitation event. Monday night, as a shortwave propagates through the region ahead of the digging trough, the models are showing the possibility of heavy precipitation, suggestive of an MCS, starting late Monday night and into early Tuesday morning. Some inconsistencies in the subsequent model runs complicates the timing of this event.

Concerns about Sunday afternoon's convection stripping the lower levels of available moisture may be negated somewhat by the persistence of strong southerly winds and high available moisture forecasted. This in combination with strong westerly flow at upper levels provides good vertical shear and instability conducive to convection.

Heavy precipitation in the early morning is forecasted to move out of the region by ~06 UTC. By midday Tuesday the lower level jet from the digging negative tilt trough is in place over the intermountain West placing Oklahoma in the exit region. Low amounts of precipitation during the day are forecasted with the possibility of more heavy precipitation in the late night/early Wednesday morning hours.

By Wednesday the trough is over our region, and throughout the week large scale low pressure systems are forecasted to be interspersed with smaller wavelength perturbations until the weekend, when the first hints of a ridge appear.