May 23 Forecast

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Morning Forecast, Monday May 23

 

Increased chances of severe weather across the region today and tomorrow. A complex of storms developed just east of Ponca City this morning and moved off to the east into NE OK where it is consistently dumping rain. A layer of low level stratus has been back building into northern OK from the outflow, and boundaries could set up for convection initiation later this afternoon, with a triple point somewhere in NW OK. Storms will again be in the moderate risk level Tuesday afternoon, as the dryline is forecast to move into central OK and the upper-level trough approach western OK. NE Colorado will also be in play with storms in the forecast Tuesday afternoon, but storms may also affect the Offutt area into the evening. The low pressure system will then lift into the central plains and drag a front along with it through the state. Only wrap around rain likely over northern OK Wednesday afternoon/evening. Likely clearing out later in the week.

Forecasts
 
Time of Day: 
Morning
Day 0: 
05/23/2011
Forecast for Day 0: 

A surface low pressure system currently sitting near the panhandle with surface boundaries will be the focal point for convection later this afternoon. A dryline near the Texas/OK border could also see some initiation, with storms progressing eastward. The models currently are forecasting convection between 18-21z, with stronger storms 21-00z over the area. The models have still been having troubles with the details, so nowcasting will be a priority with these storms. Likely to form along the surface fronts and outflow boundaries forming this morning. A layer of stratus also starting to build in this morning behind the storms in NE OK. Instability is forecast to be high, and an embedded shortwave in new mexico is forecast to move over western OK this afternoon, which should help kick off some storms. The timing and exact placement of these storms is still unknown, as the weather service is struggling with this issues as well. Offut (ER-2) is supposed to remain storm free throughout the day.

Day 1: 
05/24/2011
Forecast for Day 1: 

Tuesday the upper level trough has moved in near the panhandle region, increasing the dynamics over OK for another moderate severe weather risk area, mainly over eastern OK. The dryline is expected to move near central OK along the I-35 corridor, where storms are forecast to initiate later afternoon (21-00z), and then propogate north-eastward. Storms will also develop across NE Colorado early afternoon, persisting through early evening. Storms are also forecast to approach the eastern Nebraska/Offut area Tuesday night as well.

Day 2: 
05/25/2011
Forecast for Day 2: 

The low pressure system will lift into the central plains along with storm chances near Offut through the day. Some wrap around precip possible over nothern OK Wednesday afternoon, as the front sweeps through the state.

Extended Outlook: 

Clearing during the day thursday along with a short ridge, before another jet moves in off the west coast. Cumulus development Friday may turn into a few scattered showers, but still long range forecast models not high in confidence.


 

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