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Morning Forecast May 27

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Morning Forecast, Friday May 27

Submitted by dhartsock on Fri, 05/27/2011 - 08:43

 

Southerly winds and low-level moisture return this morning, along with some low clouds over northern OK. A slight chance of severe storms exists over central into NE OK tonight. Only a 30% chance of rain over north-central OK tonight, most likely after 00z, more likely over NE parts of OK, as a warm front lifts across the state and a low-level jet rears up later overnight.

Rain chances remain low Saturday/Sunday over northern OK (20%). Increased chances over NE Colorado Saturday night with possible upslope flow. Rain increasing over northern Kansas into southern Nebraska overnight.

Monday/Tuesday may see a better chance of rain over the region, especially Tuesday as the upper ridge builds and lifts, with a surface front. Afterwards, Wednesday onward appears to be looking at dry conditions as an upper ridge builds in.

Forecasts
 
Time of Day: 
Morning
Day 0: 
05/27/2011
Forecast for Day 0: 

This morning, low stratus clouds over central and northern OK, moving into NE OK where a few small scattered showers developed along a line up into Canada. Low clouds are expected to continue to build in over the SGP region during the day, with low level moisture returning rapidly. There exists a 20-30% chance of rain over our area, increasing to 40% over NE OK tonight. The models don't quite agree on this though, with the NAM producing little to no precip over the state tonight, while the GFS and WRF models bring storms from central into northern OK, mainly NE OK after 00z. A southerly low level jet is forecast to develop over the state, and possibly interact with a warm front lifting northward from Texas.

Day 1: 
05/28/2011
Forecast for Day 1: 

As the frontal boundary pushes northward, rain chances will increase over Kansas into Nebraska Saturday night. Possible upslope event over NE Colorado beginning early evening into the night. Good chance of storms near the Offutt area by early morning (09-12z).

Day 2: 
05/29/2011
Forecast for Day 2: 

Continued southerly flow as upper level trough begins digging in over the West. Better chance for clear skies on Sunday than rain over OK.

Extended Outlook: 

Monday into Tuesday the upper trough lifts into the northern plains. Clouds should return again Monday, with another possibility of rain Tuesday along a surface front.

Wednesday an upper level ridge builds in over the central and southern plains and is projected to sit around for awhile, bringing warm and dry conditions.


  1. MC3E Weather Briefing 20110527.ppt

 

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