April 22 Morning Forecast

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Campaign Forecast, Friday April 22

A surface front is moving south-eastward through NW OK this morning, reaching OKC by 18Z. Convection is forecast to initiate 21-22Z along the front which will most likely be south/east of Norman by that time. Storms will likely be severe along the line from NE OK down possibly through south-central OK and eastward.

Some elevated storms are possible overnight into early Saturday morning over central to NE OK. But then after, the afternoon convection will likely be held to along a stationary front further south/east near north Texas into SE OK, along a similar line as the previous day. 

An upper level system progressing over the SouthWest will help to kick off some storms over western and northern OK Sunday, along with the return of lower-level moisture as the front lifts back up. Some rain is possible in the overnight Saturday into early Sunday morning hours, before afternoon convection storms and showers likely through the evening into the late night hours.

Monday and Tuesday a couple more upper-level waves move through showing chances of storms in region, though might set up too far east again.

Forecasts
 
Time of Day: 
Morning
Day 0: 
04/22/2011
Forecast for Day 0: 

Lower level moisture return was recognizable this morning with dewpoints near 60F up through north-central OK. A surface cold front had moved into NW OK by 12Z and will continue to sweep down into central OK by 18Z. The front passes through SGP CF ~16Z along with some cirrus and also some shallow cumulus this afternoon post frontal, but a strong cap will prohibit any convection during the day over north-central OK. Convective initiation along the front will likely be between 21-22Z, which places the front just south and east of Norman up into NE OK. Instability (CAPE) is forecast to be high at 21Z so severe isolated storms could likely develop over eastern OK  (and possibly south-central OK) before merging into a line, moving off to the east/north-east.

Elevated storms may then develop back to the north and west overnight from central to NE OK (06-12Z) as the upper-level trough kicks through.

Day 1: 
04/23/2011
Forecast for Day 1: 

The frontal boundary will become more or less stationary Saturday with afternoon convection again likely as the moisture remains fairly abundant over south-east OK. The exact location of the boundary is not certain, as it meanders around during different model runs. But should be fairly confident most storms will remain south and east of the operations region, from north central Texas into NW Arkansas.

Again some storms may be possible overnight into early Sunday morning.

Day 2: 
04/24/2011
Forecast for Day 2: 

Happy Easter. The upper-level trough which has been digging off the West coast into the SouthWest will help to kick more widespread showers and storms over much of the state, as the front lifts back up and moisture returns again to the north/west. After some possible early morning rain, afternoon convection looks to start off a busy evening into late night precipitation event over the SGP region. The SREF currently holds the more severe thunderstorms further south over TX/OK border.

Extended Outlook: 

Both Monday and Tuesday have chances of storms developing as a couple upper level waves streak through. At the moment, Monday's event looks to be more over eastern OK again. While the GFS puts a slight chance of storms over north-central OK on Tuesday night.


 

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