A region of overnight precipitation sampled by the SGP ground instruments is slowly pulling out of Central Oklahoma this morning with eyes turning toward another potential event tonight. Model disagreement is still prevalent, but both 00Z models show relatively good agreement on re-establishing an 850hPa low-level jet, providing a pipe of Gulf moisture to push up and over the surface front stretching across south-central OK. The surface front is expected to be a focal point for afternoon and early evening convection this morning, with storms expected to spread down the line around 18-20 UTC. The current expectation is for these storms to not form a coherent enough linear feature to block off the low-level moisture return this evening, though if they do the set-up of the low level jet may be compromised for northern OK. However, if the jet does form, elevated convection is expected over northern and central OK, with storm formation in the 7-8 UTC range Monday (Sunday overnight). These storms are expected to be very similar to the Saturday overnight event in nature, both in terms of structure and storm motion. Following NAM guidance, expecting the storms to form a convective line through eastern OK by 15-17UTC Monday after clearing the region, and being pushed eastward by the first of two upper-level waves riding along the 250hPa longwave. After a 24-36 hour period of low precipitation probability, Tuesday overnight into Wednesday presents another opportunity for operations as the second wave pushes through providing another round of good synoptic forcing through Colorado into south Kansas/north Oklahoma. Questions still remain as of 00Z model runs regarding the available moisture for this system. Following this second wave, it is anticipated that several down will likely occur with a quiet weather pattern.
