May 12th Morning Forecast

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Morning Forecast, Thursday May 12

Fog this morning over much of the region, will be moving out west to east as the front and dryer air sweeps through this morning. The upper level cut off low continues to spin over the Colorado/Kansas border with the surface low located over the Kansas/Nebraska central plains. The front/dryline is expected to set up east of I-35 by mid-day, possibly even pushing further into NE Oklahoma. Instability will be fairly high ahead of the front which will set up for convective initiation across SE Oklahoma 18-21Z and severe storms continuing into NW Arkansas by 00Z.

The slow eastward progression of the broad upper trough will put our region under NW flow aloft, and as the surface low meanders over to Kansas City area by early Friday morning, low clouds (comma) will be prevalent over northern OK throughout most of the day, although wrap around precip will be light and confined to north-eastern KS, Missouri.

Northerly flow will continue as an upper level ridge builds in over the plains this weekend through Tuesday. Possible storm system building by mid-week.

Forecasts
 
Time of Day: 
Morning
Day 0: 
05/12/2011
Forecast for Day 0: 

Fog this morning over much of the region, will be moving out west to east as the front and dryer air sweeps through this morning. The upper level cut off low continues to spin over the Colorado/Kansas border with the surface low located over the Kansas/Nebraska central plains. The front/dryline is expected to set up east of I-35 by mid-day, possibly even pushing further into NE Oklahoma. Instability will be fairly high ahead of the front which will set up for convective initiation across SE Oklahoma 18-21Z and severe storms continuing into NW Arkansas by 00Z.

 
Day 1: 
05/13/2011
Forecast for Day 1: 

The slow eastward progression of the broad upper trough will put our region under NW flow aloft, and as the surface low meanders over to Kansas City area by early Friday morning, low stratiform clouds (850 mb) will be prevalent over northern OK throughout most of the day, overcast 10z-21z before starting to break-up through the evening; although wrap around precip will be light and confined to north-eastern KS, Missouri.

Day 2: 
05/14/2011
Forecast for Day 2: 

Saturday should remain fairly clear over the region under northwesterly flow aloft and brisk northerly surface winds as well keeping it fairly cool and dry.

Extended Outlook: 

An upper ridge builds in over the central plains Sunday through Tuesday, keeping the atmosphere fairly suppressed for awhile again. The models show a jet streak coming off the western pacific by mid-week, and gulf moisture not returning to the area until possibly WED.

 

Forecast for Western Oklahom and Northern Texas


 

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