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May 16th Morning Forecast

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Morning Forecast, Monday May 16

Submitted by dhartsock on Mon, 05/16/2011 - 08:28
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Cooler and dry weather will continue to persist through today and most of Tuesday. A few mid-level features may sweep through the region with some mid/upper clouds. The first round of precipitation is forecast to occur early WED morning (09-12Z), before the lower level moisture returns during the day. Chances of showers and thunderstorms begin to increase WED evening into THURS and FRI. While the NAM has the area fairly well capped, the GFS appears to think the upper-level wave will help kick off storms along a dryline each of these days, with THURS evening and FRI afternoon the most active times. Still the forecast remains complex with the models still differing in the timing and progression of the upper trough.

Forecasts
 
Time of Day: 
Morning
Day 0: 
05/16/2011
Forecast for Day 0: 

High pressure over the central US under the upper ridge continues to dominate the region today. Skies should stay mostly clear throughout the day and light northerly winds, dry conditions, keeping fairly cool.

Day 1: 
05/17/2011
Forecast for Day 1: 

The upper level ridge still residing over the plains, but the upper trough begins digging into the rockies. Cyclogenesis starts forming a low in SE CO with the surface winds beginning to shift east to southeasterly. Some rain showers possible late evening over Wyoming/Nebraska, and as a mid-level feature progresses overnight into central Kansas, some showers will be possible along a line into northern OK early WED morning (09-12Z).

Day 2: 
05/18/2011
Forecast for Day 2: 

Wednesday, the surface winds will pick back up SE flow, moisture returning to the area. There is a chance of showers/storms over western OK (30-40% from the NWS), with the GFS showing the more likely scenario than the NAM, which has a fairly strong CAP over the area.  But a more likely precipitation event appears to occur over northern CO WED evening, as the surface low over SE CO generates some upslope SE winds over NE CO. 

Extended Outlook: 

The upper low will progress from the rockies into the upper plains Thursday - Friday, bringing SW flow aloft and likely producing synoptically driven convection across the SGP region. Abundant moisture has returned and a dryline is forecast to sit across western OK where storms will likely fire from. Thursday afternoon/evening (50-60%) appears to be the main show, with Friday afternoon storms possible (40%) across north central OK progressing eastward in the evening. 

 

 

Western Oklahoma Weather Forecast Map

Attached Files: 

MC3E Weather Briefing 20110516.ppt

 

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