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Morning Forecast Tuesday May 3

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Morning Forecast, Tuesday May 3

Submitted by dhartsock on Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:35
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Mostly dry and clear weather is forecast through this week for the SGP area. A very slight chance of some isolated afternoon small convective showers over northern/NE OK. After the upper-trough moves out, another medium wave comes through with a surface front Thursday morning, but too quickly before any moisture return can set up. By Friday a broad upper ridge sets up over the central plains into the weekend. Although moisture begins to return off the gulf with dewpoint temperatures near 70s in the region Saturday/Sunday, the region looks to remain fairly well capped.


Forecasts
 
Time of Day: 
Morning
Day 0: 
05/03/2011
Forecast for Day 0: 

Began the morning with chilly temperatures and dewpoints, in the 30s. The upper-level trough is lifting out of the region, bringing northwesterly flow aloft. Very slight chance (10%) of late afternoon small convective showers over northern and into NE OK, but mostly fair weather Cumulus over the region this afternoon. 850mb winds light out of the west.

Day 1: 
05/04/2011
Forecast for Day 1: 

Wednesday southerly winds will pick up ahead of the surface front. As the medium upper ridge/trough progress eastward, dry air remains in the lower levels, not giving time for moisture return to occur. As the front passes through NE Colorado, a slight (10%) chance for isolated showers exists.

Day 2: 
05/05/2011
Forecast for Day 2: 

A weak surface front will sweep through the state Thursday. But only expecting some post frontal cumulus that afternoon. The lower levels will remain too dry for any precipitation.

Extended Outlook: 

Friday into the weekend appears to remain dry and warm. A broad upper ridge is forecast to build over the region, helping suppress convection from possibly occurring. Though there will be a strong low-level moisture return, and a possible dry line set up, the area will remain too capped before the next upper-level trough is forecast to kick in possibly Monday into Tuesday of next week.


  1. MC3E Weather Briefing 20110503.ppt

 

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