Weather Summary:
Where to begin. TS Cristobal has sheared significantly since last night. Upper portion of storm is far to south of surface center, but is still associated with numerous vigorous thunderstorms. Flow aloft is from the NE, and is pushing the cirrus shield over us. This will tend to delay sfc heating. Secondly, the low level flow regime has significantly stabilized into NW flow as Hi in Wrn GOMEX and Cristobal to the east of FL contribute to nice W-E gradient along Ern GOMEX and FL penninsula. Resultant wind field is NNW to Nrly thru Eastern GOMEX and Wrn FL. Some cyclonic curvature noted just east of FL into Cristobal.
Line of Tstms xtends from just NE of Tampa over Andros Island, and continues to feed moisture into the cirrus shield over Srn FL. Each contributes the following. Onset of seabreeze is delayed a couple of hours from the ci. Convection is displaced Swrd to the tip of the penninsula due to the winds. However, both working together tend to deminish the effect of the west coast seabreeze entirely, and as such will make the late PM tstms over Srn FL more isolated.
Xpct this to be a poor day for our area of interest. Forecast calls for some isold tstms, but am very unsure of location. Xpct rw/trw over open ocean moving SSE, and some should move over EYB throughout the course of the day. Will update at noon.
rw 1020L
No significant changes at this time. Mission scrubbed for overcast ci with imbedded tstms (pilot has no on board radar to avoid during climbout) as well as late firing convection in area of interest. Will try again tomorrow. Xpct Cristobal to head NE allowing gradient to loosten as well as ci ovcst to dissipate. This will allow seabreeze to crank up in weak Nrly flow. Xpct tstms to pop around 1400-1500.
rw 1248L
