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Pre-Campaign Forecast 4/13/11

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Pre-Campaign Forecast 4/13/11

Submitted by cwall on Wed, 04/13/2011 - 11:41
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Summary

A low ahead of a negatively tilted trough moving into the western US will cut off and intensify over eastern Colorado and western Kansas tomorrow morning, moving a cold front through Oklahoma on Thursday evening. Convection is expected Thursday afternoon and evening, and there's a chance of stratiform wrap-around precipitation on Friday morning at SGP.

Forecasts
 
Time of Day: 
Morning
Day 0: 
04/13/2011
Forecast for Day 0: 

Very warm temperatures and clear skies expected all day.

Day 1: 
04/14/2011
Forecast for Day 1: 

A dry line will move across Oklahoma ahead of a cold front. Convective initiation expected between 19-21 UTC just west of I-35. Developing thunderstorms will move east, strengthen, and organize into the evening. Most of the action will be to the east of the MC3E domain. Recent model runs move the entire system to the west, so storms could possibly initiate just west of SGP before moving quickly to the east. Large hail and tornadoes are possibly in eastern Oklahoma.

38 hour forecast prediction map.

Day 2: 
04/15/2011
Forecast for Day 2: 

Light stratiform precipitation and clouds are likely through the first half of the day. The 1200 UTC NAM brings wrap around precipitation to the south over the SGP site through most of Friday. The 0600 UTC GFS keeps precipitation slightly farther to the north. Clearing skies expected later in the day.

Extended Outlook: 

Clear skies and sun expected for the weekend. The next storm of interest moves in early next week.
 


  1. apr13_mc3e_wxdisco.pptx

 

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