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April 18 Pre-Campaign Forecast

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Pre-Campaign Forecast, Monday April 18

Submitted by dhartsock on Mon, 04/18/2011 - 11:54
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Been under zonal flow aloft and mild weather this past weekend through today.  A surface low over OK and un upper level trough will kick up things Tuesday as the low-level moisture is increasing as well from the south. A dryline could keep bigger storms further east Tuesday evening as a cold front also moved through northern OK. Afterwards the better chance for rainfall over our area will be Thursday into early Friday.

Forecasts
 
Time of Day: 
Morning
Day 0: 
04/18/2011
Forecast for Day 0: 

Continue under zonal flow aloft as a surface low pressure system moves into central OK. Surface moisture returns over the state (except SW OK), but a strong cap will prohibit any storms today. A few clouds

Day 1: 
04/19/2011
Forecast for Day 1: 

 

 

The setup for Tuesday is a little complex as un upper-level trough moves in from the west which will likely kick that surface low pressure up to the NE. CAPE will remain strong over far eastern OK where thunderstorm development will be likely ahead of a dryline which is currently forecasted to push through into eastern OK by early afternoon, while a cold front moves down over northern OK. Timing of convection is likely to occur around 00Z but remain further east of the SGP, closer to the OK/Arkansas border, while light precipitation is likely behind the front over north-central OK around the same time (00-03Z).

Day 2: 
04/19/2011
Forecast for Day 2: 

Wednesday will stay mostly clear post-frontal as a low-amplitude upper ridge moves through.

Extended Outlook: 

Thursday into early Friday "looks like one of the better rain chances in some time." The NAM is currently forecasting ~0.5" of rain at the SGP Thursday 7am-7pm 12-hour time frame. Before possibly clearing out again Friday.


  1. MC3E Weather Briefing 20110418.pptx

 

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