The region will continue to remain fairly dry today, but low-level moisture return and an upper-level system could bring more interesting weather into the area later this week into the weekend. Storm chances begin to increase Thursday (20%) and Friday, with thunderstorm possibilities more isolated. The best chances for more widespread precipitation will be Saturday night into early Sunday morning as the upper-level storm system progresses from the West.
DH
Forecasts
Forecast for Day 0:
A lack of low-level moisture will keep the region dry with some passing mid-to-upper level clouds. Zonal flow aloft out of the west will continue. A weak surface front will hang around NW Oklahoma this afternoon.
Forecast for Day 1:
Thursday morning, the sub-tropical jet will interact with some upper level moisture bringing some upper-level cirrus through in more south-westerly flow. Later in the afternoon/evening storm chances increase (20%) with marginal moisture return and a warm front pushing northward, though isolated storms most likely to remain north and east in Kansas.
Forecast for Day 2:
Better low-level moisture return bring increased chances for isolated storms to develop Friday afternoon/evening. Likely forming over southern/central OK and moving NE-ward. Could be interesting if isolated storms do develop how severe they may become.
Extended Outlook:
The best chance for more wide-spread precipitation and thunderstorms over our regions will be Saturday night into early Sunday morning. The upper-level trough is forecasted to approach and increase the probability of thunderstorm development (50%). It will be interesting to see how this system progresses, as a few models have slowed it down a bit, which could lead to more of a Sunday event. The atmosphere will dry out again after this system passes through, before the long-range forecast indicates a possible shortwave moving through next Wednesday.
Attached files:
